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One of the best ways to make
money, in real life and UO, is to anticipate trends in supply and demand.
The updates that appear here are indications of how this has been done
in the past and my predictions for the future. Take careful note
of the dates on the appendices - the older ones may no longer be accurate,
but you can use them as a "scorecard" to see if my predictions have come
true.
Appendix
1 - December 1, 1998
Note:
A couple of these items are taken from
a previous update to this text - if I didn't still believe that they were
useful, they wouldn't be here.
In addition to this chapter to the essay, I've also revised Chapter
1 - Step 3 (placing your vendor) to reflect the current
housing patches and the changes that they bring. There are
a few other revisions to this essay (tactics bonuses have
been revised, magic items found as treasure is now always
in brand new condition and the vendor cash bug has beenfixed),
but the majority of the update can be found here.
With the recent weapons and
armour patches, merchants throughout Britannia should expect to see some
changes in demand and, of course, prices. What follows are my first reactions
to these changes and my anticipation of how things will go. I'll compose
a revised pricing guide (with specific price ranges) once the market has
settled down a bit, which of course won't be until we can put our vendors
back to work (i.e. after the housing patches are over and the evil forces
preventing us from placing our vendors have been conquered).
Melee Weapons
With the weapons rebalance,
many melee weapons that were scoffed at in the past are now feared. Some
pleasant surprises are maces, mauls, hammer picks, battle axes (perhaps
the biggest change - these puppies are now better than large battle axes,
both in terms of damage and speed), axes and the smaller, faster swords
and fencing weapons. The most unpleasant surprise is the war axe (long
my favourite mace weapon), which seems to have lost some of its *WHACK*
in the transition.
Pole arms and spears still
do the most damage per hit, and are perhaps a good bet against monsters,
but an experienced player with a kryss, katana or hammer pick can dance
rings around the wielder of a halberd of power, timing her blows perfectly
so that the user of the halberd is unequipping to heal himself before he
knows what happened.
With many weapons in a similar
damage range, the key to success in many cases is weapon speed and accuracy
(the more you hit, the more damage you'll do in the long run). Therefore,
you should put a premium on any faster weapon with a good accuracy bonus
(I've already had about 10 customers ask me for katanas, scimitars and
cutlasses of might and better with an accuracy bonus of eminently accurate
or better).
I'm still somewhat surprised
that the price of fencing weapons has remained low (although higher than
before) - I expect a large increase in the price of these assassins' delights.
A problem for magical weapons
vendors is that exceptional smith weapons have also been enhanced - a knowledgeable
fighter will know which exceptional weapons are better than their magical
counterparts. I have not done a study of smith-made weapons, but I'm sure
that if you dig around UOSS, you'll be able to find one somewhere (if not
now, then in the near future).
Archery Weapons
With some recent changes to
archery weapons (heavy crossbows are very slow and have limited range;
also, you can't drink potions without unequipping any two-handed weapon),
enhancements to melee weapons and changes in player-made archery weapons
look for a sharp downturn in the magic bow and crossbow market.
Magic bows and crossbows with
high accuracy and damage bonuses will still command high prices, but those
in the lower end of the bonus range won't be as popular as they were before
all the changes. Silver, of course, will still be immensely popular and
shouldn't be as affected by this trend.
Magic heavy crossbows will
remain popular mainly because they are repairable, but the reduction in
range and speed makes these weapons all but useless for PvP. Heavy crossbows
maintain some usefulness against monsters (from an ammunition standpoint,
they'll kill creatures a lot more cheaply than bows will), but only archers
who have the timing down will be able to use them with peak efficiency.
Plate Armour
The availability of exceptional
breastplate has hit the magic plate market hard. GMs can now craft suits
of 36 AR (35 AR with the recent armour changes, but the difference is more
a matter of how the code rounds off numbers than any change to the armour
itself), which is one AR point higher than a suit of plate of defence with
exceptional gloves. I used to sell suits of defence for 4500-5000 gp; now,
most GM smiths are selling exceptional suits for 2200-3000gp.
Strangely enough, the price
of individual pieces of plate of defence hasn't yet been affected - I still
sell the pieces as follows:
-
Gorget - 600-700gp
-
Helm - 700-800gp
-
Arms - 750-1000gp
-
Legs - 850-1000gp
-
Tunic - 1000-1250gp
A full suit of plate of guarding
(with exceptional gloves) has an AR of 39. I anticipate that the price
of such suits will drop somewhat (I was selling them for 8000-10000gp before
the patch), but won't be as hard hit as will be defence. Plate of hardening
and above should retain its value (or close to it), due to its relative
rarity and it's effectiveness (a full suit of hardening, with exceptional
gloves, has an AR of 43 or 44).
Other armour types should not
be affected by the recent changes - exceptional alternatives have always
been available, although rarely used.
I also expect armour (and weapons,
for that matter) with high toughness bonuses to continue to increase in
value.
Maker's Marks
My opinion, contrary to that
of many current GM Smiths and Bowyers, is that maker's marks are bad for
an industry, not to its benefit, if profit is your long-term motive. (Don't
spread it around too much, but I believe that there are other, equally
noble, motives - such as peer recognition and a sense of accomplishment.
Of course, if you tell anyone that I said so, I'll deny it.)
One thing that the introduction
of the marks does is to encourage people to enter the industry. Demand
for ingots has gone way up since the marks were introduced, as every journeyman,
expert, adept and master smith strives to make GM with a rash of crafting.
For miners, this new demand is great, as ingots which once held steady
at 5gp each now command 6.5-8gp each. (If you're a miner, and you're reading
this essay, if you've been selling your ingots at 5gp each then whack yourself
with your pick and take advantage of the new demand!) Soon the population
of GM smiths will have tripled and the exclusive community will be no more.
With bowyers, it will be even
worse. Logs are easy to come by, and most bowyers are also lumberjacks
who enjoy the serenity of chopping down living things and clear-cutting
the wilderness. With no check on the availability of resources, the ranks
of the GM bowyers will swell until they burst, hurting market prices for
exceptional archery weapons.
There is an argument that,
with maker's marks, it will be easier to sell exceptional items. While
that may be the case, those GMs who have worked hard at building up their
clientele based on trust and long-term relationships can now be undercut
by any recent GM who can craft the same level of items. It is no longer
even necessary to talk to your clients - just put the exceptional item
on your vendor and everyone can see what it is.
If you want an example of how
marks can hurt a market, look at potions. Before player-made potions came
with easy to read labels, alchemists of good reputation could command much
better prices than they currently do. Now, however, the world is filled
with top-class alchemists (it's a remarkably easy skill to macro to a high
level, but not GM) and cheap potion prices.
Of course, all of my opinions
are from the point of view of the merchant - from a customer's perspective,
any change which increases certainty and lowers prices is a good one.
How to Profit in a World without Vendors
As much as I love Marlene,
now is when the true merchants of the land earn their keep. It's relatively
simple to place a vendor, keep it stocked and sell your merchandise. What's
more difficult, and much more personally rewarding, is profiting as a merchant
without using a vendor.
Your biggest asset for this
task is your reputation. If you're already known as someone who can procure
what your clients require, then you'll be well ahead of the game. If your
customers and the UO community think that you're honest, you should have
no trouble operating person-to-person.
There are two complimentary
ways of doing business - ICQ and in game. A lot of your requests for merchandise
will probably come to you via ICQ if you've already built up a good network.
If you haven't, then it's time to start doing so.
The best place to do business
is at banks. Don't be afraid to hang around a busy bank (although Britain,
Trinsic and Vesper can be tough on your health - there's about a 10% chance
of getting a migraine for every 5 minutes spent at the Britain Bank) and
hawk your wares. When I started out in business I had a few advertising
macros set up that I would continually trumpet to the world (whether or
not anyone was listening). If you have something that the people want,
you should have little trouble selling it to them if you apply yourself.
If you're feeling adventurous,
go to Ice Isle or the Isle of Fire (locations of Deceit and Hyloth, respectively)
and hang out at the shrines, waiting to help out the newly deceased - with
no vendors on the islands, they have nowhere to go, and while that's bad
for them, it's a bonus for you (unfortunately, with no vendors there's
no way to get them to pre-pay for your assistance, so you'll have to trust
them to pay you after you gate them home). You might also be able to do
a brisk business in selling reagents, recall scrolls and/or runes to adventurers
in places like Orc Valley and Shame Valley.
With the reduced competition,
the marketplace is ripe for plucking. It's been about 4 days since most
vendors were re-deeded. In a week or so, players will start to miss the
ready supply of items that were available to them - reagents, potions,
scrolls and magic items. Expect a short-term increase in the price of these
goods and take full advantage of it.
Now might also be a good time
to increase your inventory of magic items. Players who look for a quick
turn-around on vendors of their own might become strapped for cash and
you may be able to pick up slower-selling items cheaply - hang on to them
until we get our vendors back, then sell them at a nice profit.
Well, that's the end of this
update - now stop surfing the net, get out there and SELL SELL SELL!!
Appendix
2 - March 7, 1999
Now that the market has had time to stabilize since the big weapons rebalancing
and exceptional armour patches, I've completely revised
the pricing guide that appears in the "Setting
Prices" section of this essay.
I've also added another section to the Merchant Guide - Zamboni's
Ideas for a Better UO. This section will feature some
of my suggestions on how to improve UO - I welcome any feedback
that you have regarding these ideas.
Here are some of the trends
that I've observed in the past few months and some predictions for the
future.
Melee Weapons
The comeback of fencing is
complete - it may now be the #1 combat skill of choice for experienced
PvP'ers. The amazing speed and damage dealing of krysses make them
the most popular weapons of the day, with war forks a close second for
fencers. While spears and short spears deal superior damage per hit,
the high speed of krysses and war forks coupled with the ability to drink
potions or equip a shield while using them make them the most popular choice
for people who enjoy poking others with sharp objects.
Swords are still popular -
especially the fast one-handed weapons such as katanas, broadswords and
scimitars. Katanas rival krysses in popularity, and katanas and krysses
of vanquishing might very well be the highest-priced non-unique magic weapons
in the game today.
Halberds and bardiches are
still very popular - there's just something so satisfying about the *THUNK*
sound that they make as they dig into an opponent. Big weapons that
do big damage will always be sexy to buyers, especially now that damage
is dealt at the beginning of the swing instead of the end of the swing
(the change makes it a lot tougher for wielders of faster weapons to dance
around without getting hit).
Sadly, the plight of the poor
axe is unchanged - all axes are two-handed (except for the war axe, which
is a mace weapon and which was recently featured in an episode of Sesame
Street - "one of these axes is not like the others") and don't deal the
same damage as bardiches or halberds - plus, they don't make that cool
noise when they hit. I found this state of affairs to be somewhat
surprising, given that axes and battle axes were improved quite a bit by
the weapons rebalancing - however, to steal a phrase, "axes just don't
get no respect".
With the changes to maces (maces
now deal extra stamina damage to opponents, making the fast ones quite
dangerous), look for them slowly to become more popular. I wouldn't
expect any big rise in prices, however, as the market seems to be adjusting
very slowly - in part because there are a ton of magic maces and war hammers
available on the market. The biggest gainers in the market should
be previously ignored weapons - the quarterstaff and the club. Both
are fast (especially the quarterstaff) and can rapidly deplete an opponent
of stamina. The mace user's biggest enemy is the total refresh potion
- if your opponent has a number of these (my adventuring characters carry
5-10 of them at all times) and is using a poisoned weapon, you should think
about gracefully backing out of the fray (translation: turn around
and run very quickly to the nearest exit).
Archery Weapons
As previously predicted, the
price of archery weapons is still going down. Heavy crossbows that
once sold for lofty amounts are in the lower echelon of weapons now.
Light crossbows have never been popular and nothing has been done to enhance
them, so they remain at the top of the "should I place this item on my
vendor or just sell it to my friendly neighbourhood provisioner" list.
Bows are still the most popular archery weapon and command decent prices,
but don't expect to get rich off of low-middle range bows anymore.
Armour
With the advent of meditation,
leather and studded leather armour are becoming more popular. Although
one can't mediate while wearing studded leather, keeping one's AR below
17-18 helps with passive mana regeneration, so it's in demand for mages
(especially archer/mages).
Leather armour has seen the
biggest boost from the meditation patch - leather of hardening and above
now sells for decent prices - even guarding can sell well on vendors, if
priced reasonably.
The other big change to the
armour market is, of course, the introduction of coloured ore. Coloured
exceptional armour sells, well, exceptionally - all types, not just plate.
The market is still too young to give a definitive price guide, but I'm
conducting research and hope to have some guidelines up soon (for both
the finished products and the ingots).
Treasure Hunting
Possibly the most enjoyable
change to the game in a long time, treasure hunting offers the potential
for large rewards and lots of fun.
Treasure hunting has had two
effects on the market: firstly, it's introduced a large number of
powerful items into the marketplace; and secondly, maps have become the
newest UO commodity for trading.
There are still some big problems
with the map market, the largest of which is the inability of buyers to
differentiate between classes of maps - in other words, unless you're the
person who found the map, you have no way to verify what level it is.
There's always trust, which is good up to a point, but given the potential
gain from a level 5 map (up to 100k in loot), who's going to fork over
25-50k for a piece of paper that may only yield a return of 2-4k if it's
a level 1 map? Unfortunately, there are just too many players in
UO who give us honest merchants a bad name - treasure maps won't
sell for high prices until players can see what level chest the map will
spawn. (See the newest section of the Merchant Guide - Zamboni's
ideas for a better UO - for some of my suggestions to change treasure hunting
and, more specifically, to deal with this problem.)
Scrolls
Meditation has radically changed
the scroll market. For an in-depth analysis of scroll prices before
and after meditation, take a look in the "Setting Prices" section of the
essay under "Scrolls".
That's all the updating for
now. If you have any questions of comments don't hesitate to send
them my way via the link on the left.
Happy vendoring!
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